Coastal California, including the Monterey region, could receive 150% to 200% of normal winter rainfall as NOAA classifies the 2026-2027 El Niño "very strong."

Two major forecasting systems, the National Multimodel Ensemble and the European Seasonal Forecasting System 5, both point to well-above-average precipitation from December through March, the Sacramento Bee reported. Some coastal areas could receive double their winter average. The strongest signal stretches from Sacramento south to San Diego, with January forecast as the peak month statewide.

The stakes keep rising. Key tropical Pacific temperatures have reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above normal, SFGATE reported, and NOAA gives an 83% chance the event will surpass every El Niño since 1950. Climate scientist Daniel Swain told SFGATE there is a 70% to 100% chance of a very wet winter across all of coastal California, calling the signal "even stronger and even broader than it was just last month."

The updated forecasts add weight to what local officials have been preparing for since Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide state of emergency on Sept. 21. That proclamation cited a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño. It directed the Department of Water Resources to advance groundwater recharge projects and ordered the California Coastal Commission to expedite permit reviews for coastal communities.

El Niño is also expected to raise sea levels along the California coast by about a foot this fall, driven by a Kelvin wave crossing the Pacific, KSBW reported Sept. 15. Higher tides and storm surges could push water farther inland. Active flood insurance policies in California dropped 5% over the past year, according to the National Flood Insurance Program, as Insurance Journal reported Oct. 7.

Locally, the City of Monterey held a Winter Storm Ready Town Hall at the Monterey Conference Center on Sept. 30, drawing about 120 residents. National Weather Service Science and Operations Officer Lamont Bain warned at that event that coastal flooding will threaten the California coastline this winter, as Monterey County NOW reported. Bain cautioned that no two El Niño events produce the same outcome.

Monterey Public Works Director Andrea Renny said at the Sept. 30 town hall that crews are cleaning storm drains, headwalls, culverts and waterways. "We do the same type of preparation because we just really never know the scale of the storm, so we prepare every time as if it's a big storm, it's just we have more awareness this time," Renny said, as KAZU reported Oct. 7.

Monterey Assistant City Manager Nat Rojanasathira urged residents to check monterey.gov/stormcenter for updates during storms and to sign up for AlertMontereyCounty.

Carmel-by-the-Sea and Salinas both declared local emergencies in response to Newsom's proclamation, according to Monterey County NOW. In Big Sur, burn scars from the Plaskett and Timber fires raise debris-flow concerns, and 1 million sandbags are available at the Big Sur Fire Station.

The County of Monterey has posted a storm preparedness checklist at countyofmonterey.gov, where residents can review evacuation plans and sign up for alerts before the heaviest rains arrive.