Waves up to 16 feet, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are headed for Monterey Bay beaches Saturday through Monday, and the National Weather Service Bay Area office is urging people to stay out of the water.

The NWS issued a Beach Hazards Statement covering the Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast from Saturday, Oct. 10, through Monday evening, Oct. 12. A separate Coastal Flood Advisory took effect Friday, Oct. 9, at 9 a.m. and runs through 3 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 13.

The agency warned that up to 1.4 feet of water could inundate low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. Flooding of parking lots, parks and roads is expected, though only isolated road closures are anticipated.

High astronomical tides combining with thermal expansion of seawater are driving the elevated water levels, KSBW meteorologist Gina De Vecchio reported. High tide is expected around 11 a.m. Saturday through Monday.

The NWS Bay Area office said on X on Friday, Oct. 9, that dangerous conditions are forecast along the shoreline and urged people to stay off jetties, piers, rocks and other waterside infrastructure.

Fewer lifeguards on duty

The hazardous surf arrives as lifeguard staffing along the Central Coast has thinned. Bryan Kine, a supervisor lifeguard for California State Parks, told KSBW that with summer over, crews are spread across 36 miles of shoreline along the Central Coast.

"These long period swells, often what'll happen is it's nice and mellow. It looks really flat for 20, 30, 40 minutes, and all of a sudden a big set of waves will come in," Kine said.

Kine noted that lifeguards might be 10 to 15 minutes away from any given beach. His advice was blunt: stay out of the water.

El Niño pattern behind the surge

The San Francisco Chronicle reported that the elevated water levels are part of a broader pattern tied to an unusually strong El Niño developing along the West Coast. The effects are expected to persist into winter.

Sneaker waves can travel far beyond the reach of preceding waves, knocking people off rocks or pulling them into the surf. Rip currents can quickly carry swimmers away from shore.

What residents should know

The NWS advises beachgoers to:

  • Stay off jetties, piers, rocks and other waterside infrastructure
  • Remain out of the water
  • Never turn your back on the ocean
  • Allow extra travel time, as some roads may close
  • Avoid driving around barricades or through water of unknown depth

The Monterey County Coastal Safety Guide also recommends keeping children within arm's reach near the shore and calling 911 immediately in an emergency rather than attempting a self-rescue.

Residents can check surf and tide forecasts at weather.gov/mtr. The Monterey County Beach Condition Hotline is 831-755-4599.